Well, we finally have the number.
In my last post, I estimated the Dangote Refinery IPO could land somewhere around ₦150–₦300 per share.
Turns out I was way too low. 😅
Nigeria’s SEC has now approved the IPO at ₦525 per share, with 4.1 billion shares being offered to investors.
If fully subscribed, Dangote Refinery could raise about ₦2.15 trillion ($1.6bn).
Source: Reuters
💵 The IPO numbers
- IPO price: ₦525/share
- Shares offered: 4.1 billion
- Potential raise: ₦2.15 trillion
- Existing registered shares: 120.13 billion
- Implied refinery valuation: US$47 billion
- Expected order book opening: September 14, 2026
Reuters says the pricing implies a valuation of roughly $47 billion for the refinery.
That’s also pretty close to the $50 billion valuation Dangote was reportedly targeting earlier this year.
🧮 What ₦525/share actually costs
- 100 shares → ₦52,500
- 200 shares → ₦105,000
- 500 shares → ₦262,500
- 1,000 shares → ₦525,000
- 2,000 shares → ₦1.05 million
So if you were planning to put around ₦100k–₦300k into the IPO, you're looking at roughly 190–570 shares, before fees and assuming there are no minimum subscription restrictions.
📈 One big thing has changed
This is no longer speculation about if Dangote Refinery will list or approximately what the shares might cost.
The SEC approval is in, and the offer price is ₦525.
The next thing I’m watching is the actual offer documentation, especially:
- Minimum subscription
- Retail allocation
- How investors can apply
- Final listing date
- Financial performance disclosed in the prospectus
There is also reportedly a 15% greenshoe option, which could allow additional shares to be sold if demand is strong.
⚠️ ₦525 isn't exactly cheap
At an implied valuation of around $47 billion, investors are paying a serious premium.
Reuters compared that with refiners such as Tupras, valued at around $12bn, and HF Sinclair, valued at around $16bn.
Obviously, they aren't identical businesses or markets, but it gives some perspective on just how aggressively Dangote Refinery is being valued.
So the question has changed.
It isn't really:
Is Dangote Refinery a huge and important business?
Clearly it is.
The real question is:
At ₦525/share and a ~$47bn valuation, is it still a good buy? 👀
My previous ₦150–₦300 estimate got smoked 😂.
Personally, I want to see the prospectus and actual refinery financials before deciding whether ₦525 is a bargain or simply the Dangote premium.
Would you buy at ₦525/share?
