Nigeria CPI Report: July 2026 — Headline Cools to 15.43%, But Food Inflation Surges to 5.56% MoM
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July 2026 on August 17. Headline inflation fell for the second consecutive month to 15.43% — but the positive headline masks a sharp acceleration in food prices, with monthly food inflation hitting 5.56% — the highest single-month reading this year.
Headline Overview
| Indicator | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Change |
|---|
| Headline Inflation (YoY) | 15.91% | 15.43% | -0.48pp ⬇️ |
| CPI Index Level (points) | 143.0 | 145.3 | +2.3 |
| MoM Inflation | 1.66% | 1.57% | -0.09pp ⬇️ |
| 12-Month Average Inflation | 16.89% | — | (vs 29.10% in Jul 2025) |
| Jul 2025 Comparison (YoY) | — | 24.94% | -9.51pp ⬇️ |
Key takeaway: The headline eased for the second straight month and monthly price growth slowed marginally (1.66% → 1.57%) — on the surface, encouraging. But the split between core and food tells a very different story. Core inflation fell sharply to a 4-year low, while food inflation surged to its highest monthly reading of 2026 at 5.56% MoM. The ordinary Nigerian household — where food dominates the budget — is feeling more pain, not less, despite the improving headline.
Key Sector Inflation (Year-on-Year)
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Change (pp) |
|---|
| Food Inflation (YoY) | 17.52% | 20.31% | +2.79 🔴 |
| Core Inflation (excl. agric & energy) | 15.92% | 14.97% | -0.95 ⬇️ |
| Housing & Utilities | 11.2% | 12.6% | +1.4 🔴 |
| Restaurants & Hotels | 23.6% | 21.8% | -1.8pp ⬇️ |
| Transportation | 15.6% | 15.5% | -0.1pp ⬇️ |
| Miscellaneous Goods & Services | 17.3% | 15.6% | -1.7pp ⬇️ |
| Clothing & Footwear | 6.4% | 4.0% | -2.4pp ⬇️ |
| Jul 2025 Food Comparison | — | 26.20% | -5.89pp ⬇️ |
🔴 Food inflation jumped from 17.52% to 20.31% YoY — crossing back above the 20% threshold for the first time since the rebound began in February. This is the sixth consecutive monthly acceleration in food inflation, and it is the component that most directly affects household welfare.
⬇️ Core inflation fell to 14.97% — its lowest level since May 2022 — marking the second consecutive month of decline and a remarkable 9.49pp drop from a year ago. This is the most positive signal in the report for the CBN's monetary policy stance.
🔴 Housing & utilities ticked up from 11.2% to 12.6%, a secondary pressure point beyond food.
⬇️ Several non-food categories (clothing & footwear, miscellaneous goods, restaurants) showed meaningful deceleration, reflecting the broader disinflationary trend in non-agricultural prices.
Month-on-Month Detail
| Measure | Jun 2026 (MoM) | Jul 2026 (MoM) | Change |
|---|
| Headline | 1.66% | 1.57% | -0.09pp ⬇️ |
| Food | 3.75% | 5.56% | +1.81pp 🔴 |
| Core | 1.66% | — | ⬇️ (moderated) |
| Rural MoM | 0.52% | 0.78% | +0.26pp 🔴 |
| Urban MoM | 2.13% | 1.90% | -0.23pp ⬇️ |
🔴 The food MoM of 5.56% is alarming — it is the highest monthly food price reading of 2026 and nearly double June's 3.75%. The NBS attributed the spike to rising prices of crayfish, fresh pepper, onions, carrots, rice, water yam, fresh tomatoes, garri, plantain, beef, eggs, guinea corn, ginger, and plantain flour. The breadth — spanning proteins, cereals, tubers, and vegetables simultaneously — points to supply-side disruptions rather than a demand shock.
Urban vs Rural Inflation
| Measure | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Jul 2025 |
|---|
| Urban (YoY) | 16.08% | 16.12% | 31.54% |
| Rural (YoY) | 15.48% | 13.77% | — |
| Urban (MoM) | 2.13% | 1.90% | — |
| Rural (MoM) | — | 0.78% | — |
| Urban 12-Month Avg | — | 16.81% | 30.74% |
| Rural 12-Month Avg | — | 16.72% | 27.05% |
The urban-rural split has widened — urban inflation (16.12%) is now 2.35pp above rural (13.77%), a notable gap. Rural inflation has eased more significantly, possibly reflecting some improvement in local food supply chains.
State-Level Highlights
Highest YoY food inflation:
Adamawa: 51.36%
Katsina: 30.84%
Zamfara: 30.65%
Lowest YoY food inflation:
Highest MoM food inflation:
Adamawa: 17.02%
Lagos: 13.48%
Borno: 13.26%
Lowest MoM food inflation:
Jigawa: -3.68%
Kebbi: -3.67%
Bauchi: -1.85%
The state-level divergence remains extreme. Adamawa at 51.36% YoY food inflation reflects active conflict-related supply disruptions in the Northeast. Borno's near-zero YoY food inflation (+/- 0.31%) is a statistical anomaly likely related to base effects from high prices a year ago. Lagos's 13.48% MoM food spike is the most significant urban food inflation reading this year — a direct cost of living pressure for Nigeria's largest commercial city.
Trend Summary: Jan–Jul 2026
| Month | Headline YoY | MoM | Food YoY | Core YoY |
|---|
| Jan | 15.10% | -2.88% | 8.89% | 17.72% |
| Feb | 15.06% | +2.01% | 12.12% | 15.88% |
| Mar | ~15.38% | ~2.50% | ~14.5% | ~16.5% |
| Apr | 15.69% | +2.13% | 16.06% | 15.85% |
| May | 15.93% | +1.75% | 16.96% | 16.82% |
| Jun | 15.91% | +1.66% | 17.52% | 15.92% |
| Jul | 15.43% | +1.57% | 20.31% | 14.97% |
A clear bifurcation is emerging: core inflation is in a sustained downward trend (17.72% → 14.97% over seven months), while food inflation is in a sustained upward trend (8.89% → 20.31%). The headline is being pulled between these two opposing forces — and food's growing dominance in the basket means it could push headline higher even as core continues to fall.
CBN Policy & Outlook
| Indicator | Current |
|---|
| Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) | 26.50% |
| Naira (official) | NGN ~1,360–1,370/USD |
| Core 12-Month Avg | 18.09% (vs 26.56% in Jul 2025) |
| Food 12-Month Avg | — |
| Real MPR (vs core) | ~+11.5pp (significantly positive) |
The sharp fall in core inflation to 14.97% strengthens the case for further CBN rate cuts — the real policy rate (MPR minus core) is now comfortably above 11 percentage points, one of the highest in the world. However, the surging food MoM (5.56%) and the food YoY rebound above 20% will give the MPC pause. A supply-driven food shock cannot be easily solved with monetary policy, but the CBN will be reluctant to ease while food prices are accelerating.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Consumer Price Index Report — July 2026 (released August 17, 2026)
