Nigeria CPI Report: June 2026 — Inflation Edges Down to 15.91% as Core Cools, Food Rises
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June 2026 today, July 15. Headline inflation ticked down marginally to 15.91% — snapping a three-month run of increases — but the headline conceals a split story: core inflation cooled sharply while food inflation rebounded on a monthly basis.
Headline Overview
| Indicator | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | Change |
|---|
| Headline Inflation (YoY) | 15.93% | 15.91% | -0.02pp ⬇️ |
| CPI Index Level (points) | 140.7 | 143.0 | +2.3 |
| MoM Inflation | 1.75% | 1.66% | -0.09pp ⬇️ |
| 12-Month Average Inflation | 18.36% | 17.63% | -0.73pp ⬇️ |
| Jun 2025 Comparison | — | 25.29% | -9.38pp ⬇️ |
Key takeaway: The marginal YoY decline (-0.02pp) breaks the three-month streak of rising headline inflation. More meaningful is the continued slowdown in the monthly pace — from 1.75% in May to 1.66% in June — suggesting that underlying price momentum is gradually losing steam. The 12-month rolling average also fell to 17.63%, down nearly 12 percentage points from the 29.82% recorded a year ago.
Key Sector Inflation (Year-on-Year)
| Sector | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | Change (pp) |
|---|
| Food Inflation | 16.96% | 17.52% | +0.56 🔴 |
| Core Inflation (excl. agric & energy) | 16.82% | 15.92% | -0.90 ⬇️ |
| Jun 2025 Food Comparison | — | 25.41% | -7.89pp ⬇️ |
| Jun 2025 Core Comparison | — | 25.41% | -9.49pp ⬇️ |
⬇️ Core inflation fell sharply — by nearly 1 full percentage point — from 16.82% to 15.92%. This is the most encouraging signal in the report, indicating that non-food, non-energy price pressures are beginning to ease. Core has now dropped back below food inflation, reversing the unusual crossover seen in May.
🔴 Food inflation ticked up to 17.52% YoY, driven by a broader range of staple food items. However, year-on-year food inflation is still nearly 8 percentage points below June 2025 (25.41%).
Month-on-Month Detail
| Measure | May 2026 (MoM) | Jun 2026 (MoM) | Change |
|---|
| Headline | 1.75% | 1.66% | -0.09pp ⬇️ |
| Food | 2.98% | 3.75% | +0.77pp 🔴 |
| Core | 1.94% | 1.66% | -0.28pp ⬇️ |
🔴 Food MoM jumped from 2.98% to 3.75% — the sharpest single-month food price acceleration since the Ramadan spike in February. This is the key concern in the June report and bears watching into July.
⬇️ Core MoM cooled from 1.94% to 1.66%, consistent with the broader trend of slowing non-food inflation.
Food Price Drivers — Items Contributing to Rise
The NBS attributed June's food price acceleration to rising costs across a wide range of staples:
Upward drivers (MoM & YoY): Crayfish, fresh pepper, fresh tomatoes, dried green peas, yam flour (sold loose), water yam, beef, bananas, cassava flour, cowpeas, garri, Irish potatoes, yam tubers.
The breadth of food price increases — spanning both proteins (beef, crayfish), tubers (yam, cassava), and vegetables (pepper, tomatoes) — suggests supply-side pressures rather than a single commodity shock.
Top Contributors to Headline Inflation
| Division | Contribution (pp) |
|---|
| Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages | 6.37pp |
| Restaurants & Accommodation Services | 2.06pp |
| Transport | 1.70pp |
Food's 6.37pp contribution remains the dominant driver of Nigeria's headline CPI, underscoring how central agricultural supply conditions and food logistics costs are to the inflation outlook.
Urban vs Rural Inflation
| Measure | May 2026 (YoY) | Jun 2026 (YoY) | Jun 2025 (YoY) |
|---|
| Urban Inflation | — | 16.08% | 31.64% |
| Rural Inflation | — | 15.48% | — |
| Urban MoM | 1.99% | 2.13% | — |
Urban inflation (16.08%) remains above rural (15.48%), reflecting higher exposure to energy, transport, and services costs in cities. The urban MoM actually ticked up (1.99% → 2.13%), a slight divergence from the national trend.
State-Level Highlights
Highest YoY inflation (Jun 2026):
Niger State: 42.23%
Kogi: 41.59%
FCT (Abuja): 39.91%
Lowest YoY inflation:
Imo: 19.74%
Ebonyi: 20.79%
Katsina: 21.87%
Highest food inflation:
Kogi: 53.02%
Niger: 43.83%
Benue: 40.83%
The extreme divergence between states — Niger and Kogi at over 40% while Imo is below 20% — reflects significant regional variation in supply chains, security conditions, and market access. The North-Central states (Niger, Kogi, Benue) are hardest hit, consistent with ongoing food security pressures from insecurity and displacement.
Trend Summary: Jan–Jun 2026
| Month | YoY | MoM |
|---|
| Jan 2026 | 15.10% | -2.88% |
| Feb 2026 | 15.06% | +2.01% |
| Mar 2026 | ~15.38% | ~2.5% |
| Apr 2026 | 15.69% | +2.13% |
| May 2026 | 15.93% | +1.75% |
| Jun 2026 | 15.91% | +1.66% |
The monthly pace has now slowed for two consecutive months (2.13% → 1.75% → 1.66%), which is a tentatively positive signal. However, the food MoM rebound in June (3.75%) is a counterpoint that warrants monitoring.
CBN Policy & Outlook
| Indicator | Current |
|---|
| Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) | 26.50% |
| Naira (official) | NGN ~1,360–1,370/USD |
| 12-Month Average Inflation | 17.63% |
| Core 12-Month Average | 18.82% (vs 26.88% in Jun 2025) |
| Food 12-Month Average | 16.42% (vs 31.93% in Jun 2025) |
The sharp drop in core inflation to 15.92% gives the CBN more room to consider further monetary easing, but the food MoM rebound and the persistent gap between the MPR (26.50%) and inflation (15.91%) suggest the real interest rate remains comfortably positive. The minimum wage review signalled by the Presidency in June introduces an upside wage-push inflation risk to watch in H2 2026.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Consumer Price Index Report — June 2026 (released July 15, 2026)
