Nigeria CPI Report: May 2026 — Inflation Ticks Up to 15.93% for Third Straight Month
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for May 2026 on June 15. Headline inflation rose to 15.93% — the third consecutive monthly increase — though the monthly pace of price rises actually slowed, and the print came in below analyst expectations.
Headline Overview
| Indicator | Apr 2026 | May 2026 | Change |
|---|
| Headline Inflation (YoY) | 15.69% | 15.93% | +0.24pp 🔴 |
| CPI Index Level (points) | 138.3 | 140.7 | +2.4 |
| MoM Inflation | 2.13% | 1.75% | -0.38pp ⬇️ |
| 12-Month Average Inflation | — | 18.36% | (vs 30.57% a year ago) |
| May 2025 Comparison | — | 26.06% | -10.13pp YoY improvement |
Key takeaway: Two stories in one report. The YoY headline rose for the third month in a row (15.06% → 15.69% → 15.93%), continuing the rebound that began in March after February's brief dip. But the monthly pace slowed from 2.13% to 1.75%, suggesting the rate of increase is moderating even if the level is still climbing. The print came in 29bps below analyst estimates (Investadvocate had forecast 16.22%).
On a year-on-year basis, May 2026 remains dramatically lower than May 2025 (26.06%) — a gap of over 10 percentage points, though largely driven by the CPI rebasing exercise.
Key Sector Inflation (Year-on-Year)
| Sector | Apr 2026 | May 2026 | Change (pp) |
|---|
| Food Inflation | 16.06% | 16.96% | +0.90 🔴 |
| Core Inflation (excl. agric & energy) | 15.85% | 16.82% | +0.97 🔴 |
| May 2025 Food Comparison | — | 24.55% | -7.59pp ⬇️ |
🔴 Both food and core inflation moved higher on a year-on-year basis. Food inflation climbed from 16.06% to 16.96%, while core accelerated from 15.85% to 16.82% — the most significant monthly jump in core inflation seen in recent months.
Notably, it is the first time since the rebound began that core has exceeded food on a year-on-year basis, suggesting that inflationary pressures are no longer confined to agricultural supply disruptions — they are beginning to broaden.
Month-on-Month Detail
| Measure | Apr 2026 (MoM) | May 2026 (MoM) | Change |
|---|
| Headline | 2.13% | 1.75% | -0.38pp ⬇️ |
| Food | 3.63% | 2.98% | -0.65pp ⬇️ |
⬇️ The moderation in monthly food inflation (3.63% → 2.98%) is encouraging. Analysts at Investadvocate credit two factors: naira stability (containing imported food price pressures) and improved farm supply from off-season harvests supported by irrigation.
Food Price Drivers — Items Contributing to Rise
Despite the MoM moderation, a wide range of staple food items continued to exert upward pressure on prices:
Upward drivers (YoY): Onions, maize grains, melon, water yam, cassava flour, crayfish, fresh pepper, tomatoes, wheat grain, cassava tubers, yam tubers, sweet potatoes, ginger, plantain, cowpea.
Iran War & Oil Price Context
| Metric | Detail |
|---|
| Brent Crude (avg May 2026) | ~USD 102.78/bbl |
| Brent Crude (June 2, 2026) | ~USD 96.00/bbl |
| Brent Crude (June 15, 2026) | ~USD 83.10–83.17/bbl |
| US-Iran ceasefire | Announced; Strait of Hormuz 60-day reopening plan |
| Naira (official rate) | NGN 1,360–1,370/USD (broadly stable) |
The US-Iran ceasefire and the planned 60-day reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are expected to be mildly disinflationary for Nigeria in the months ahead. Falling global crude prices should translate into lower petrol and diesel costs domestically, reducing transport fares, logistics costs, and food distribution expenses — all significant cost drivers in Nigeria's inflation basket.
Broader Trend: Monthly Inflation Rebound Since February
| Month | YoY | MoM |
|---|
| Jan 2026 | 15.10% | -2.88% |
| Feb 2026 | 15.06% | +2.01% |
| Mar 2026 | ~15.5% | ~2.5% |
| Apr 2026 | 15.69% | +2.13% |
| May 2026 | 15.93% | +1.75% |
January's unusual deflation (-2.88% MoM) was clearly an outlier. Since February, monthly inflation has stabilised in the 1.75–2.13% range — elevated but not accelerating. The slowing MoM trend in May is a tentative positive signal.
CBN Policy & Outlook
| Indicator | Current |
|---|
| Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) | 26.50% |
| Naira (official) | NGN ~1,360–1,370/USD |
| 12-Month Average Inflation | 18.36% (vs 30.57% a year ago) |
| Analyst forecast was | 16.22% |
| Actual print | 15.93% (beat by 29bps) |
The below-expectation print lends some support to the CBN's recent rate-cutting stance. With the Iran ceasefire easing global oil prices, and the naira stable in the NGN 1,360–1,370 band, the near-term inflation trajectory may be more benign than the YoY trend suggests. However, the broadening of core inflation beyond food is a watchpoint — the CBN will want to see it retreat before any further easing.
Context & Outlook
This is the third consecutive monthly increase in YoY inflation — a rebound from the brief dip to 15.06% in February — though the pace of monthly price rises is now slowing.
The 12-month average of 18.36% (vs 30.57% for the prior year's 12-month window) reflects how far the aggregate inflation trajectory has shifted, even if the current level remains elevated.
Oil price relief is the biggest disinflationary catalyst on the horizon. If Brent sustains below $85/bbl, petrol and diesel subsidies will face less pressure, and transport-linked inflation should ease.
The food supply calendar matters: the main harvest season (Q3/Q4) typically brings seasonal relief to staple food prices.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Consumer Price Index Report — May 2026 (released June 15, 2026)
