UN warns of likely new global temperature records before 2031
Global average temperatures are expected to remain at or near record highs, according to the United Nations. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) highlighted that the 11 hottest years have all occurred since 2015. The agency warns that a new hottest year is “likely” before 2031, with significant risks of surpassing key warming thresholds. The report also notes the influence of climate phenomena like El Nino and ongoing concerns about Arctic warming.
What we know
- The United Nations’ weather and climate agency predicts global average temperatures will stay at or near record levels for the next five years.
- The WMO says there is a 75 per cent chance that the 2026-2030 five-year mean temperature will surpass the 1.5 °C threshold above the 1850-1900 average.
- The agency reports an 86 per cent chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.
- Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO’s update, notes that a predicted El Nino at the end of 2026 could make 2027 a record-breaking year.
- Arctic temperatures over the next five northern hemisphere winters are forecast to be 2.8 °C above the 1991-2020 average, more than triple the global anomaly for the same period.
