Canada CPI Report: April 2026 — Inflation Eases to ~2.1% as Gasoline Shock Stabilizes
The Statistics Canada released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April 2026 today. Headline inflation eased to ~2.1% YoY, down from March’s 2.4%, as the initial gasoline shock tied to Middle East oil disruptions began stabilizing.
Headline Overview
| Indicator | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | Change |
|---|
| Headline CPI (YoY) | 2.4% | 2.1% | -0.3pp |
| CPI excl. Gasoline (YoY) | 2.2% | 2.1% | -0.1pp |
| MoM Change | +0.9% | +0.3% | -0.6pp |
| MoM Seasonally Adjusted | +0.5% | +0.2% | -0.3pp |
Key takeaway: March’s inflation spike now looks increasingly like a temporary energy shock, not a broad inflation reacceleration.
April marks the first “clean” inflation print after GST/HST base-year distortions fully rolled off. Underlying inflation remained relatively contained.
Key Sector Inflation (Year-on-Year)
| Sector | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | Change (pp) |
|---|
| Gasoline | +5.9% | +2.8% | -3.1 ⬇️ |
| Energy (overall) | +3.9% | +1.7% | -2.2 ⬇️ |
| Transportation | +3.7% | 3.1% | -0.6 ⬇️ |
| Food (stores) | 4.4% | 4.1% | -0.3 ⬇️ |
| — Fresh Vegetables | +7.8% | 6.9% | -0.9 ⬇️ |
| Restaurant Food | 3.2% | 3.0% | -0.2 ⬇️ |
| Shelter | 5.8% | 5.6% | -0.2 ⬇️ |
| Natural Gas | -18.1% | -16.4% | +1.7 |
⬇️ Gasoline inflation cooled sharply, reducing pressure on transportation and headline CPI.
⬇️ Grocery inflation eased modestly, though food prices remain elevated relative to pre-2024 levels.
⬇️ Shelter inflation continues to gradually soften, helped by slower rent growth in major cities.
Bank of Canada Core Measures
| Measure | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 |
|---|
| CPI-Trim | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% ⬇️ |
| CPI-Median | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% ⬇️ |
Core inflation measures continue trending toward the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, reinforcing the view that underlying inflation remains well-anchored.
Provincial Highlights
Inflation slowed in most provinces, particularly those heavily exposed to gasoline volatility in March.
Alberta and Saskatchewan still posted relatively higher transportation inflation, while Quebec continued to benefit from slower shelter cost growth.
Oil Shock Normalization
| Metric | March 2026 | April 2026 |
|---|
| Gasoline MoM | +21.2% | +3.1% |
| Energy MoM | +13.1% | +1.8% |
| Oil Market Impact | Initial Iran shock | Partial stabilization |
Energy markets remain volatile, but April suggests the worst of the immediate price shock may have passed.
Bank of Canada Outlook
| Metric | Detail |
|---|
| Current Policy Rate | ~4.25% |
| Market Expectation | Possible late-2026 cuts |
| Policy Bias | Neutral to slightly restrictive |
Markets are beginning to price in the possibility that the Bank of Canada could resume rate cuts later in 2026 if core inflation continues easing.
Context & Outlook
April confirms that Canada’s March inflation jump was primarily energy-driven.
Core inflation remains close to target, unlike in several peer economies.
Shelter remains Canada’s largest structural inflation problem.
Future inflation direction will heavily depend on:
Next CPI release: May 2026 (expected June 2026)
