Experts raise alarm over Nigeria’s rising debt and election spending
Nigeria’s fiscal outlook is under scrutiny as experts warn of a potential surge in government spending during the upcoming election cycle. The latest Coronation Economic Note highlights the challenges facing the country’s debt management and fiscal consolidation. Analysts point to concerning debt-service ratios and a reliance on borrowing to cover obligations. Calls for structural reforms and improved revenue mobilisation are growing louder amid fears of financial instability.
TLDR
- Experts warn that the 2026–2027 election cycle could trigger a massive increase in government spending, threatening recent debt management progress.
- Nigeria’s total public debt has reached N159.28tn, with a debt-service-to-revenue ratio estimated at 113 per cent in early 2025.
- The International Monetary Fund projects a decline in Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio to 32.3 per cent by 2026, but analysts argue this does not reflect underlying risks.
- The National Assembly has approved a new $6bn external borrowing package, signalling continued reliance on debt.
- Analysts stress that aggressive revenue mobilisation and structural reforms are needed to ensure fiscal sustainability and avoid a crisis during the election period.
