Nigeria CPI Report: March 2026 — Inflation Continues Cooling to ~13.8% on Base Effects and FX Stability
The National Bureau of Statistics released Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2026. Headline inflation continued its downward trend, easing to ~13.8% YoY, marking another significant decline from prior months as base effects, currency stabilization, and tighter monetary policy take hold.
Headline Overview
| Indicator | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | Change |
|---|
| Headline CPI (YoY) | 14.5% | 13.8% | -0.7pp |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 12.2% | 11.9% | -0.3pp |
| Food Inflation (YoY) | 17.1% | 16.5% | -0.6pp |
| MoM Change | +1.1% | +0.9% | -0.2pp |
Key takeaway: Inflation is cooling consistently, but remains structurally high. The drop is largely driven by favorable base effects and FX stability, not a full normalization of domestic price pressures.
Month-on-month inflation slowed to 0.9%, indicating that price momentum is easing, though still elevated relative to global peers.
Key Sector Inflation (Year-on-Year)
| Sector | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | Change (pp) |
|---|
| Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages | 17.1% | 16.5% | -0.6 ⬇️ |
| Transport | 13.4% | 14.2% | +0.8 🔴 |
| Housing, Water, Electricity | 11.8% | 12.1% | +0.3 🔴 |
| Imported Food | 15.6% | 14.9% | -0.7 ⬇️ |
| Farm Produce | 18.3% | 17.6% | -0.7 ⬇️ |
🔴 Transport costs rose due to fuel price pass-through and logistics costs, even as global oil conditions remain volatile.
⬇️ Food inflation continues to ease but remains the largest driver of household cost pressure, particularly in staples like grains and vegetables.
🔴 Housing and utilities are creeping upward, reflecting structural supply issues and energy costs.
Core vs Headline Breakdown
| Measure | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 |
|---|
| Core CPI | 12.5% | 12.2% | 11.9% ⬇️ |
| Food CPI | 17.8% | 17.1% | 16.5% ⬇️ |
Both core and food inflation are trending downward, confirming that the disinflation is broad-based, not just energy-driven.
Regional Highlights
Inflation remains higher in urban areas compared to rural regions, driven by rent, transportation, and imported goods.
Northern states continue to experience elevated food inflation, linked to supply chain disruptions and agricultural constraints.
FX & Policy Impact
| Metric | Detail |
|---|
| Naira Stability | Improved vs late 2025 volatility |
| CBN Policy Rate | Remains elevated (~27.5%) |
| FX Liquidity | Improved inflows easing import costs |
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s tight monetary stance is working, but at the cost of slower economic activity.
Context & Outlook
Disinflation is real but fragile — largely driven by base effects rather than structural fixes.
Food prices remain the key risk due to insecurity, logistics, and agricultural inefficiencies.
FX stability is the biggest positive driver — any reversal could quickly push inflation back up.
Nigeria is still running 5–6x higher inflation than developed markets, which continues to erode purchasing power.
Next CPI release: April 2026 (expected mid-May)
Source: National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria) — Consumer Price Index, March 2026
