Nigeria CPI Report: February 2026 — Inflation Eases Marginally to 15.06%
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February 2026 today, March 16. Headline inflation edged down to 15.06%, continuing its slow descent — though month-on-month prices actually rebounded.
Headline Overview
| Indicator | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | Change |
|---|
| Headline Inflation (YoY) | 15.10% | 15.06% | -0.04pp |
| CPI Index Level (points) | 127.4 | 130.0 | +2.6 |
| MoM Inflation | -2.88% | +2.01% | +4.89pp |
| 12-Month Average Inflation | — | 21.03% | — |
Key takeaway: While year-on-year inflation dipped marginally by 0.04pp, the real story is the month-on-month rebound — prices rose 2.01% in February after falling 2.88% in January. The January deflation was unusual and February represents a return to positive monthly price growth. At 15.06%, the print came in above analyst expectations (Coronation Research had projected 14.12%).
On a year-on-year basis, February 2026 is still 11.21pp lower than February 2025 (26.27%), showing the significant impact of the CPI rebasing and broader disinflation trend.
Key Sector Inflation (Year-on-Year)
| Sector | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | Change (pp) |
|---|
| Food Inflation | 8.89% | 12.12% | +3.23 🔴 |
| Core Inflation (excl. agric & energy) | 17.72% | 15.88% | -1.84 ⬇️ |
| Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages | — | 11.0% | — |
| Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco | — | 9.4% | — |
🔴 Food inflation rebounded sharply from 8.89% to 12.12% YoY. On a month-on-month basis, food prices surged 4.69% in February after falling 6.02% in January — a swing of nearly 11 percentage points. The NBS attributed the increase to rising prices for beans, carrots, okazi leaf, cassava tuber, crayfish, millet flour, yam flour, snails, ogbono, and cowpeas. Ramadan demand is likely a contributing factor.
⬇️ Core inflation continued to improve, falling from 17.72% to 15.88% YoY — a decline of 9.78pp compared to February 2025 (25.66%). On a MoM basis, core inflation was 0.89%, up from -1.69% in January.
Month-on-Month Breakdown
| Category | MoM (Feb 2026) | MoM (Jan 2026) | Change |
|---|
| Headline | +2.01% | -2.88% | +4.89pp |
| Food | +4.69% | -6.02% | +10.71pp |
| Core | +0.89% | -1.69% | +2.58pp |
| Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages | +5.1% | — | — |
| Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco | -0.8% | — | — |
The sharp MoM rebound reflects a return to seasonal patterns after the unusual January deflation. Food prices were the main driver, likely amplified by Ramadan-related demand increases.
Urban vs Rural Inflation
| Measure | Feb 2026 (YoY) | Feb 2025 (YoY) | Change (pp) |
|---|
| Urban Inflation | 15.53% | 28.49% | -12.96 ⬇️ |
| Rural Inflation | — | — | — |
Urban inflation stood at 15.53% on a YoY basis, 12.96pp lower than February 2025. On a MoM basis, urban inflation was 2.55%.
CBN Policy Context
| Indicator | Current |
|---|
| Monetary Policy Rate | 26.50% |
| Last MPC action | -50bp cut (from 27.0%) |
| Previous headline | 15.10% (Jan 2026) |
| Feb 2025 comparison | 26.27% |
The CBN cut rates by 50bps at its last MPC meeting, bringing the policy rate to 26.50%. The marginal easing in headline inflation lends some support to that decision. However, the MoM rebound in food prices and the above-expectation print may give the MPC pause before any further cuts.
Context & Outlook
Ramadan effect: Prices for key food staples typically spike during Ramadan as demand increases. Traders across Abuja, Taraba, and Kaduna have been reported hiking prices for rice, beans, maize, and groundnuts.
Crude oil production dropped to 1.314 million bpd in February (from 1.459m in January) due to the Bonga field turnaround maintenance — this may weigh on FX reserves and naira stability.
Rebasing impact: The CPI continues to use the new 2024 base year with 2023 weight reference. The 12-month average inflation rate remains at 21.03%, well above the headline figure, reflecting the elevated readings earlier in the rolling window.
Food inflation at 12.12% reversed the January dip into single digits — whether the sub-10% food inflation of January was a one-off or the start of a trend will become clearer in March.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Consumer Price Index Report — February 2026 (released March 16, 2026)
