US-Iran tensions could drive up global freight costs, says research group
The Sea Empowerment and Research Centre has warned that the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran may significantly impact global freight rates and energy markets. According to the group, rerouting and increased risk premiums could push freight rates up by as much as 40 per cent. Eugene Nweke, Head of Research at the centre, highlighted the vulnerability of key maritime routes and the broader economic risks. The group also noted that Nigeria could see both opportunities and challenges from these global shifts.
TLDR
- The Sea Empowerment and Research Centre projects global freight rates could rise by 15–40 per cent due to the US-Iran crisis.
- Eugene Nweke stated that prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger oil price volatility, higher freight rates, and increased war-risk insurance.
- Nigeria may benefit from higher crude prices, potentially gaining $18–$22 billion in additional oil revenue annually if prices reach $120 per barrel.
- The operationalisation of the Dangote Refinery could reduce Nigeria’s vulnerability to external shocks by lowering import dependence and moderating foreign exchange demand.
- SEREC advised the government to invest oil windfall gains in stabilisation and infrastructure, and to strengthen maritime security and regional trade integration.
